Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 777.417625 880.471590 997.033013 1139.657987 1310.865917 1511.563532 1767.300010
2024-11-03 644.415556 781.362674 951.543677 1182.755709 1495.468984 1914.188205 2536.362389
2024-11-10 569.020333 719.434080 917.700291 1206.145129 1629.489047 2253.557122 3297.702533
2024-11-17 512.907364 669.801671 886.394688 1219.412752 1742.760499 2581.742155 4147.549790
2024-11-24 462.032603 618.586695 842.640843 1202.677679 1801.179467 2831.664641 4952.253887
2024-12-01 431.343374 591.268135 828.164533 1225.589380 1924.453868 3220.022802 6184.301182
2024-12-08 410.069432 574.672376 826.585331 1267.170587 2086.366480 3724.637633 7927.807309
2024-12-15 386.875894 552.273960 812.461134 1284.076218 2205.026476 4178.113744 9826.396566
2024-12-22 361.723900 524.146604 785.449021 1273.318272 2266.327931 4525.250082 11672.511911
2024-12-29 345.801321 509.120130 778.264891 1297.239650 2403.323118 5097.963329 14714.340272
2025-01-05 321.017067 477.457382 739.279678 1254.822456 2387.545398 5278.436981 16517.408257
2025-01-12 300.788906 451.810983 708.406022 1224.200290 2392.481556 5519.087684 18832.687951
2025-01-19 279.173888 423.079820 670.934311 1178.619504 2361.272949 5671.115902 21082.286981
2025-01-26 271.763744 418.157222 676.278925 1222.628935 2560.377464 6622.859040 29114.969205
2025-02-02 262.479560 409.106577 672.864591 1247.223267 2716.874493 7526.358469 39133.968028
2025-02-09 252.706824 398.385238 665.142143 1261.079640 2848.863992 8426.757891 52133.520758
2025-02-16 240.285139 381.988590 644.902373 1243.581345 2888.370923 8995.377794 64463.272068
2025-02-23 233.307711 375.013680 642.553252 1267.541891 3057.803220 10241.100342 91936.141285
2025-03-02 228.719147 372.087255 647.983666 1311.044428 3302.279737 12054.946177 145976.013655
2025-03-09 221.957244 364.577205 643.281283 1328.737455 3469.557108 13649.320875 221958.568628
2025-03-16 213.116176 352.532310 628.073063 1317.478028 3535.300042 14746.815569 310693.580272
2025-03-23 207.951298 347.244426 626.749766 1342.516469 3740.829622 16967.246648 546788.897592
2025-03-30 197.534946 331.115971 600.822592 1298.123439 3674.497724 17277.289946 685032.864812